INTERNEWSTIMES.COM – The specter of a potential Israeli strike on Iran’s oil industry is casting a dark shadow over global energy markets, with analysts predicting a significant surge in oil prices if production is disrupted.
Goldman Sachs, a leading investment bank, believes that oil prices could skyrocket by $20 per barrel if Iran’s oil production is significantly curtailed. This prediction assumes that OPEC+ will not intervene to offset any losses from Iran, a major oil producer responsible for nearly 4% of the world’s supply.
The recent missile attack on Israel by Iran has heightened tensions in the region, leading to fears of a retaliatory strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure. Analysts are particularly concerned about a potential strike on Kharg Island, a key oil terminal responsible for 90% of Iran’s crude exports.
A strike on Kharg Island could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically vital waterway that carries approximately one-fifth of the world’s daily oil production. Iran has previously threatened to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz if its oil sector is targeted.
The potential for a conflict between Israel and Iran poses a significant risk to global oil markets, potentially leading to supply disruptions and price volatility. The situation highlights the interconnectedness of global energy markets and the geopolitical factors that can influence oil prices.
While some analysts believe OPEC+ has enough spare capacity to compensate for a disruption in Iranian exports, the world’s spare oil capacity is largely concentrated in the Middle East, which could also be at risk in a larger conflict. The potential for a full-scale war could send Brent crude prices soaring above $100 per barrel, with any potential shut-in of the Strait of Hormuz threatening prices of $150 per barrel or more. (Red)
